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The Rise of Carry

Speakers: Kevin Coldiron, Tim Lee, and Jamie Lee

CQF Institute is proud to bring you a free talk with Kevin Coldiron, Tim Lee, and Jamie Lee on 'The Rise of Carry'.

Abstract

Over the last three decades, global financial markets have become dominated by carry trades. The emergence of this “carry regime” has very important consequences for the world economy, yet is still not widely understood. This talk will explain why this system developed, how it impacts the returns to risky assets, and what potential paths lie ahead of us.

This talk will explain how carry trades drive market liquidity, credit creation, and the pattern of market returns. How and why the S&P 500 itself has been turned into the world’s most important carry trade. Central banks, in particular the Fed, have been captured by this process and show how their actions contribute to the carry regime’s growth. Lastly, how the markets might evolve in the future and what indicators will tell if the carry regime is ending or continuing to grow.

The talk will draw on research and theory from the speakers’ book, 'The Rise of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis', which was ranked #1 in a range of Amazon business and investment categories this spring.

Click here to read more about the  book.

Speakers' Bios

Kevin Coldiron

Kevin Coldiron is a Lecturer in Financial Engineering Program at U.C. Berkeley’s Haas Business School. Kevin co-founded Algert Coldiron Investors (ACI), a San Francisco-based quantitative hedge fund. He previously headed the hedge fund business at Barclays Global Investors in London and has also worked as a currency market analysts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Kevin has an MBA from London Business School.

Tim Lee

Tim Lee founded the independent economics consultancy pi Economics, which served financial institutions from hedge funds to traditional asset managers. Prior to setting up pi Economics in Greenwich, Connecticut, in 2003, he worked in London as European economist and global economic strategist for asset management companies including GT Management and Invesco. Before London, he spent nine years in Hong Kong as an Asian economist for GT Management.

Tim is a co-author of 'The Rise of Carry' (2020). He is also the author of the highly regarded 'Economics for Professional Investors' (2nd edition 1998) along with many articles in newspapers and journals. His commentaries and analyses have been widely quoted. Tim has an MA in Economics from Cambridge University.

Jamie Lee

Jamie works for investment guru and philanthropist, Jeremy Grantham, focusing on environmental research and volatility trading. Previously, he worked as economist and analyst for asset management companies in Boston and London. Jamie holds a BA in mathematics and English from Dartmouth College.